For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has seen a significant increase in Propylene prices in the North America region. Various factors have influenced market prices during this period. Supply constraints have played a major role, with several propylene plants undergoing maintenance shutdowns and experiencing technical issues. These disruptions have led to a tightening of supply and a decrease in readily available propylene. Additionally, declining stockpiles of propane and propylene have further exacerbated the scarcity and pushed prices higher.
Mexico, in particular, has witnessed the maximum price changes in the region. The market in Mexico has been heavily dependent on propylene imports from the USA, which experienced significant supply disruptions. This has led to expensive imports and a surge in propylene prices in Mexico.
Overall, the pricing environment for propylene in the North America region has been positive, with prices increasing steadily. Seasonality has also played a role, with demand typically picking up after the Lunar New Year holidays. There has been a correlation between supply constraints, declining stockpiles, and the upward price trend. In terms of percentage change, there has been a 26% increase in propylene prices from the previous quarter in 2024.
APAC
The Propylene pricing dynamics in the APAC region for Q1 2024 were influenced by a balanced to bullish market sentiments. While the market situation remained stable, the supply and demand dynamics were moderate to high, resulting in a gradual increase in prices. The key contributing factors included the surge in energy costs and the shutdown of several plants, such as Hyosung Corporation's Ulsan plant in South Korea, which disrupted supply and impacted prices. The market situation in South Korea was most pronounced, with a steady demand for the product market, which helped to maintain the pricing trend. The post-holiday season and the Lunar Year festivities led to a temporary incline in demand during February 2024. The first half of the quarter showed a slight increase in prices, while remained unchanged in the second half, resulting in a balanced pricing trend. In conclusion, the final quarter's price for Propylene FOB Busan in South Korea was USD 823/MT, reflecting a stable market situation and a gradual increase in prices driven by a mix of supply and demand dynamics and other contributing factors such as energy costs and plant shutdowns.
The first quarter of 2024 has been a period of increasing prices for Propylene in the European market. Several factors have influenced these price changes, including supply constraints, limited availability of Propylene, and disruptions in shipping routes. These factors have led to tight supplies and higher freight costs, resulting in higher import prices for Propylene. Moreover, increased demand in downstream sectors and a seasonal slowdown have impacted the market, further contributing to the upward price trend. In Germany, the price changes have been more pronounced compared to other countries in the region. The percentage change in prices compared to the same quarter last year is significant, with a 56% increase. The quarter-ending price for Propylene CIF Hamburg in Germany is recorded at USD 1135/MT. Overall, the pricing environment for Propylene in the European market, particularly in Germany, has been positive and characterized by increasing prices. The tight supply conditions and limited availability have driven prices higher, while decreased demand and seasonal factors have also contributed to the upward price trend.
MEA
The first quarter of 2024 has been marked by increasing prices for Propylene in the MEA region. Several significant factors have influenced market prices during this period. The overall trends in the market have been positive, with prices experiencing a steady increase. Seasonality has also played a role, with the demand for Propylene typically higher during this time of the year. In Saudi Arabia, the price changes have been the most significant. Interestingly, the Advanced Petrochemical Company's deliberate shutdown of its propylene and polypropylene units may have played a significant role in the price hike. The domestic propane market had a tight spot flow as a result of this planned maintenance, which was started on February 4 till 29th February 2024 created a tight spot market. The percentage change from the same quarter last year is 17%, indicating a substantial increase in prices. The latest quarter-ending price for Propylene FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia is USD 866/MT. This price reflects the overall positive pricing environment in the region during Q1 2024.
South America
In Q1 2024, the Propylene pricing dynamics in the South America region experienced a significant hike. While plant shutdowns played a significant role in price increases, other factors also contributed to the market situation. In Brazil, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, the overall trend was bullish throughout the quarter due to supply constraints. The market was heavily reliant on imports from the USA, and any disruptions in the US market had a direct impact on pricing in Brazil. Plant shutdowns, such as the maintenance shutdowns at Dow Chemical and LyondellBasell in Texas, limited the supply of Propylene. Additionally, Enterprise Products Partners L.P. in Mont Belvieu, Texas exerted a Force Majeure on their Propylene plant, further tightening the market supply. These shutdowns and supply disruptions led to scarcity levels and a surge in import prices of Propylene in Brazil. It is important to note that the market situation in Brazil was also influenced by seasonality, with the post-holiday season leading to factory shutdowns and potential supply shortages.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American Propylene market in Q4 2023 witnessed a significant surge during this timeframe due to the enhanced demand observed in the downstream PP industry and expensive imports from overseas, such as from the USA during October and November 2023.
A plant shutdown occurred at the INVISTA plant in Houston and Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Texas, from 1 Nov to 22 Nov 2023 which affected the market shipments during this timeframe. Mexico's economic activities were affected by high inflation and a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, which significantly impacted the chemical industry's operations. The Propylene Polymer Grade CFR Manzanillo in Mexico witnessed a 43% increase in prices from the previous quarter, with a -7% price decline in the second half of the quarter compared to the first half.
However, the cautious approach of local traders, driven by the costs associated with importing Propylene, particularly from the USA, played a pivotal role in sustaining a declining market trend. Despite the challenges posed by global uncertainties, the downstream Polypropylene (PP) industry maintained a consistent and moderate demand for Propylene, reinforcing the resilience of the Mexican market. The quarter-ending price of Propylene Polymer Grade CFR Manzanillo in Mexico was USD 969/MT during December.
APAC
The Q4 of 2023 was a challenging period for the Propylene market in the Asia-Pacific region with a decline in November while the prices slightly edged up during December. Overall, the Propylene market in the Asia-Pacific region remains challenging, primarily due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance influenced by the price of crude oil. The market experienced a bearish trend due to the sharp decline in the price of its feedstock, crude oil, which fell by approximately 1.9% globally. The decline in demand has led to a significant rise in upstream inventory levels, contributing to the supply-demand imbalance within the Propylene market. The market witnessed low demand from downstream industries, leading to a downturn during November 2023. However, a slight uptick in demand and new inventories entering the market among the suppliers are likely to keep the market situation strong. South Korea experienced a moderate supply of Propylene, which was ample enough to satisfy domestic and international demand, but the demand was low from downstream plastic industries. The price of Propylene FOB Busan in South Korea was USD 806/MT during December.
Europe
The European Propylene market witnessed a mixed quarter in Q4 of 2023, with prices experiencing notable fluctuations. The market sentiment was primarily influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including abundant availability of the product in the global market, and low demand from downstream industries in December, while the high production costs surged the pricing dynamics during October and November. During October the German market stood out with a slight increase in prices despite low demand from the downstream Propylene Glycol industry. This increase was attributed to expensive imports from overseas and the influence of an optimistic market situation. However, the market situation remained bearish with high supply and low demand, maintaining an average hoarding sentiment. The price trend for Propylene decreased at the end of the quarter to settle at USD 838/MT of Propylene CIF Hamburg in Germany. Overall, the market faced challenges due to low demand and high supply, leading to fluctuating prices at the end of the quarter.
MEA
The MEA region's Propylene market experienced stability throughout Q4 2023, with consistent supply and demand from downstream industries. The market was impacted by various factors, including ample global availability of products, low demand from the downstream plastic industry, and destocking activities in the region. Among the MEA countries, Saudi Arabia witnessed the most significant changes in Propylene prices, with a notable 6.7% decrease in prices during November. The decline in prices was parallel to the drop in crude oil prices which played a crucial role in driving market growth during this time. The international crude oil market has been marked by fluctuations and an overall downward trend recently. Contributing to this dynamic, the rebound in OPEC exports has exerted pressure on oil prices, with the Middle East region witnessing an increase in its export share due to a seasonal decline in internal demand. The price comparison of the current quarter with the previous quarter showed a decrease of 12%. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a 3% decrease in prices, with the latest price of Propylene FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia for Q4 2023 being USD 610/MT.
South America
The South American Propylene market witnessed a volatile Q4 2023, marked by significant price fluctuations. The top three factors that impacted the market were the stable supply of domestic products, moderate demand from the downstream Polypropylene (PP) industry, and the surge in new inventories entering the market among suppliers during November. Brazil, the largest importer of Propylene in the region, experienced a period of stable domestic product supply and moderate demand from the downstream PP industry during December. Moreover, the price percentage comparison of the first and second half of the quarter was 2%. The latest price of Propylene Polymer Grade CFR Santos in Brazil at the end of Q4 2023 was USD 979/MT. However, the market was affected by high production costs and hurdles in trading activities due to winter during November. Additionally, there has been a modest increase in demand from the downstream polypropylene (PP) industry, contributing to a favorable pricing trend for the product. Moreover, companies in the manufacturing sector were displaying resilience and determination in the face of adversity, raising the potential for continued expansion during this timeframe.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In the US market, Propylene prices exhibited a mixed sentiment during the third quarter of 2023. The initial two months of the quarter saw a bearish trend, with prices declining by 2% and 5%, respectively. This decline was largely influenced by the global oversupply of Propylene and its derivatives, which impacted the demand for US Propylene. Increased competition in global markets, driven by oversupply, hindered additional exports, necessitating a further reduction in Propylene prices to stimulate demand. Macroeconomic factors, such as high inflation, further dampened consumer spending, exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market. Derivative sectors, notably packaging, and consumer goods, witnessed weakened buying momentum as buyers prioritized maintaining minimal inventories and procuring materials only when essential. However, there was a notable price upturn in the last month of the quarter, closely tied to the resurgence of the price of upstream Crude Oil, which surged by an additional 7.5% during the same period. The persistent tight supply of Crude Oil in the US market continued to create a bullish atmosphere for Crude Oil and its derivatives, including Propylene. Simultaneously, the downstream Polypropylene industry experienced a modest increase in demand. Several factors contributed to this surge, with one of the most prominent being the improved economic outlook for larger enterprises, which drove greater consumption and usage within the sector. These developments underscore the intricate relationship between energy markets and downstream industries as they adapt to shifting dynamics and economic conditions.
Asia
In the third quarter of 2023, the Asian Propylene market displayed a remarkable turnaround following a downward trend observed in the preceding quarter. This period was marked by a substantial surge in Propylene prices, primarily driven by tightening supplies on the global stage. Notably, the Chinese market saw an impressive 10% increase in the price of Propylene, largely in response to a notable 24% uptick in the price of its feedstock, Crude Oil, over the same quarter. The surge in demand was evident as downstream operations resumed at full throttle, creating a noticeable pull effect in the market. This period also witnessed commendable efficiency in upstream production and shipping processes, leading to a significant reduction in inventory levels. Consequently, Propylene prices mirrored this upward trajectory. It is important to highlight that global market dynamics were also significantly influenced by developments in the oil industry. Key oil-producing nations, Saudi Arabia and Russia, collaboratively decided to extend their voluntary oil output reductions by 1.3 million barrels per day until the year-end, which had an immediate and substantial impact on crude oil prices, pushing them to a 10-month high earlier in the quarter. Furthermore, specific events in China, such as Wanhua Chemical's scheduled maintenance shutdown from September 1st to September 15th, and Jinneng Science & Technology Co Ltd's declaration of a force majeure event from September 1st to September 10th, further added to the complexity of market dynamics during this quarter.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2023, the European Propylene market witnessed a series of fluctuations. The initial month was marked by a 9% decrease in value, primarily attributed to reduced demand from the downstream Polypropylene industry. This drop in demand, coupled with an uncertain market outlook, exerted bearish pressure on prices as market players sought to unload their stockpiles in anticipation of sluggish momentum. Moreover, the weakening purchase pound and an influx of competitively priced import cargoes from overseas suppliers added to the downward price pressure. Macroeconomic factors, particularly high inflation, adversely impacted consumer spending, compounding the bearish sentiment. As the quarter progressed, a shift occurred in the last two months, with prices rebounding by approximately 25% and 7% in the European market. This upturn was influenced by price hikes in overseas markets, notably the USA, which consequently affected imports into the European region. Furthermore, the price of the feedstock Crude Oil experienced a substantial increase of approximately 24% in the international market. This surge in Crude Oil prices contributed to higher production costs, providing support for a bullish trend in the Propylene market. The buying momentum from derivative sectors, especially packaging and consumer goods, notably weakened as many buyers prioritized maintaining minimal inventories and acquiring materials only when necessary. These market dynamics, a complex interplay of global factors and local conditions, defined the trajectory of the European Propylene market during the third quarter of 2023.
South America
During the third quarter of 2023, the Brazilian Propylene market witnessed a fluctuating pricing landscape. The initial two months of the quarter were marked by a bearish trend, with prices declining by 1.8% and 4.8%, respectively. This downturn was primarily driven by an excess supply in the market, leading to increased competition and supply chain efficiencies compared to the preceding month. Furthermore, the accessibility of the product at more competitive rates, especially through imports from global markets like the USA and Mexico, contributed to this downward trend, with cost reductions of approximately 2%. Notably, Brazil relies heavily on Propylene imports from the USA. However, in the final month of the quarter, there was a reversal in this trend, as Propylene prices surged by approximately 4.5%. This upswing was primarily attributed to a heightened demand from the plastic industry, which significantly increased the need for this essential feedstock. Despite this demand surge, the supply of Propylene remained relatively stable, thanks in part to imports from overseas sources, such as the USA. It's worth mentioning that the USA market also experienced a similar price increase, with Propylene prices rising by 5%. This synchronized price movement in both markets underscores the global dynamics at play, where supply and demand imbalances continue to shape Propylene's pricing trends throughout the last month of the quarter.
Middle East
During the third quarter of 2023, Middle Eastern Propylene prices staged a remarkable recovery, following a downturn in the second quarter. This rebound was triggered by diminished inventory levels in Saudi Arabia, where a decline of approximately 5% was witnessed in the preceding quarter. This trend closely mirrored a substantial 24% surge in the cost of feedstock Crude Oil in the Saudi Arabian market. Crude Oil prices continued their upward trajectory, capturing the attention of investors who remained focused on supply constraints amidst lingering macroeconomic uncertainties. Notably, oil-producing giants, Saudi Arabia and Russia, opted to extend their voluntary oil output reductions by a collective 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year. This strategic move resulted in a significant upswing in global crude prices, which reached a 10-month high in the same quarter. Riyadh initiated a 1 million barrel per day reduction in July, maintaining it on a month-to-month basis, while other OPEC member nations sustained a collective 1.66 million barrel per day cut until the close of 2024. Additionally, Russia committed to decreasing exports by 500,000 barrels per day in August and 300,000 barrels per day in September, with an extension until December 2023. These measures underscore the ongoing commitment to stabilize global oil markets in the face of fluctuating demand and supply dynamics, impacting the Propylene market as feedstock costs rose, prompting some petrochemical plants to reduce their production and affecting overall supply.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
During the second quarter of 2023, the North American Propylene market encountered a bearish situation. Prices in the Mexican market dropped by approximately 17.5%, 13%, and 10% in April, May, and June, respectively. This decline was largely influenced by the decrease in the price of crude oil, the feedstock for Propylene, which fell by around 9% and 3% in the last two months of the quarter. The situation was exacerbated by global economic concerns and the possibility of interest rate hikes in the United States and Europe, causing oil prices to come under pressure in June 2023. In addition, the demand for Propylene from downstream industries, particularly the Polypropylene sector, remained low. The oversupply of the product due to reduced demand led to a bearish trend throughout the quarter. Furthermore, the bearish prices were also impacted by the US bank crises, particularly the failure of three banks (Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank), which reduced credit availability and tightened lending standards for the petrochemical industry. This created challenges in securing necessary capital for projects, potentially leading to delays or cancellations of demand for products.
South America
In the second quarter of 2023, the South American Propylene market experienced a bearish trend, with prices declining in the Brazilian market by approximately 18%, 14%, and 10% in April, May, and June. The downturn was driven by lacklustre demand from downstream industries, particularly the polypropylene sector. One contributing factor to the bearish trend was the availability of cheaper imported cargoes from the United States and Russia, which impacted the smooth flow of products into Brazil. Additionally, the country faced economic challenges, with an increased inflation rate affecting the demand for Propylene during this period. Furthermore, Brazil's economic activities were affected by high inflation and a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, which significantly impacted the chemical industry's operations. Manufacturing contracted for the seventh consecutive month, and the Central Bank of Brazil considered further rate hikes to address the inflationary pressures. At the end of June 2023, the price of Propylene Polymer Grade CFR Santos (Brazil) was hovering around USD 766 per metric ton.
APAC
The Asian Propylene market experienced a bearish trend during the second quarter of 2023. In Singapore, the price of Propylene decreased by approximately 0.5%, 4%, and 13% in April, May, and June, respectively. The decline was attributed to the low-import costs offered to Singaporean traders, which led to a shift in market sentiment towards sluggishness. Furthermore, the drop in feedstock prices contributed to the downward pressure on Propylene prices. Demand from downstream producers, particularly for Propylene oxide and Acrylonitrile, remained low, as they refrained from stocking up ahead of the Labor Day Holiday. Similarly, in China, the price of Propylene (Chemical Grade CFR Shanghai) declined by 14% during the quarter. The upstream Propylene market witnessed falling prices across the board, with liquefied gas and crude oil prices dropping significantly. Cost support from the upstream market remained weak, with multiple sets of PDH devices upstream planning to increase load or restart, leading to an increase in market supply. The main downstream polypropylene market also continued to decline, exerting a negative impact on the Propylene market. In South Korea, the economy showed signs of slowing down, particularly in exports and manufacturing, which further contributed to the bearish sentiment in the region.
Europe
The European Propylene market experienced a bearish trend in the second quarter of 2023. Prices for Propylene in Germany, represented by CIF Hamburg, declined by approximately 5.5%, 12.5%, and 14.5% in April, May, and June, respectively. The decrease in Propylene prices mirrored the drop in crude oil prices during May and June 2023, as lingering concerns over a slowdown in the global economy and potential interest rate hikes in the US and Europe weighed down on oil prices. The demand from downstream industries, especially the polypropylene sector, was lacklustre, leading to an oversupply of Propylene in the European market. Additionally, the region faced competition from smooth and cheaper imports of the product from countries like Saudi Arabia and the United States. Furthermore, Europe grappled with a cost-of-living crisis, affecting consumer purchasing power and demand for energy-related products. As a result, demand for Propylene further declined, pushed the market into a bearish state. At the end of June 2023, the price of Propylene CIF Hamburg (Germany) was hovering around USD 538 per metric ton.
Middle East
The Saudi Arabian Propylene market experienced a bearish trend throughout Q2 2023, with prices decreasing by approximately 1.5%, 8%, and 6% in April, May, and June, respectively. The decline in Propylene prices was influenced by the fall in crude oil prices, which dropped by about 9% and 3% in May and June 2023, impacting the feedstock cost. Moreover, Saudi Aramco's decision to cut propane prices in June was reflected in the downstream derivative industries, including the Propylene market. Additionally, the Middle East faced ample supplies and low demand from China's petrochemicals industry, which added further pressure on the market sentiment. Furthermore, the optimism surrounding demand growth faltered, as oil prices remained under pressure despite Saudi Arabia's surprise output cut. The increase in Russian oil flows and US production, along with concerns over a weak global economic outlook, contributed to a bearish market sentiment. At the end of this quarter the price of Propylene FOB Al Jubail (Saudi Arabia) was hovering around USD 663 per metric ton.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the first quarter of 2023, the Propylene market in North America showed mixed sentiment. Initially, the prices of Propylene decreased and continued to do so until the end of February due to an abundant supply of feedstock crude oil in the domestic market. Additionally, demand from downstream products such as Propylene Oxide (PO), Polypropylene (PP), and other value chain products remained sluggish because of weak consumer sentiment in the region, which was caused by a slow start in key end-user markets like resins and packaging industries. However, Propylene prices started gaining upward momentum in the last month of the quarter due to the cost support from feedstock WTI Crude oil prices, which rose after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered an expected hike in interest rates. This was in response to the recent turmoil in the financial market spurred by the collapse of two U.S. banks. On the other hand, downstream demand from both domestic and overseas markets did not improve much. As a result, the prices of Propylene were evaluated at USD 459/MT for refinery grade and USD 1016/MT on March 31.
Asia- Pacific
Propylene prices in the Asia-Pacific region exhibited a mixed trend during the first quarter of 2023. The Chinese Propylene market witnessed a positive start to the quarter, thanks to the resurgence in market activities after the government abandoned its zero-COVID policy. This led to an increase in demand for the product, mainly due to the rise in procurement drive from downstream PP, PO, and other value chains. Since the conclusion of the Lunar New Year holiday, market participants have restocked the available material. However, the prices took a dip in March, primarily because of the fall in upstream Crude oil and feedstock Propane prices to varying degrees, which provided limited cost support. Moreover, there was a decline in demand from downstream PP due to unplanned shutdowns, resulting in less procurement of Propylene. Despite this, import availability of Propylene from South Korea and Japan remained stable in Chinese ports, leading to sufficient inventory levels in the domestic market. Some Propylene suppliers were willing to destock due to high inventory, leading to a significant cut in their offers. Therefore, the prices for FOB Qingdao and CFR Shanghai settled at USD 910/MT and USD 930/MT on March 31.
Europe
Propylene prices showed fluctuation in the European region during the first quarter of 2023. In the first two months of Q2, the overall prices of Propylene in the German market took an unprecedented surge due to a rebound in manufacturing activities despite high energy costs. In terms of supply, inventories were relatively adequate due to high operating rates and the continuous flow of imports from the overseas market. Despite this, market participants reported few instances of new orders, and demand from downstream PP, PO, and other value chains remained stable in the regional market. However, Propylene prices started to follow a declining trajectory in the final month of Q2 because market sentiment had turned increasingly bearish as a bleak macroeconomic environment cast a pall over European markets. In addition, operating rates dropped in the domestic market owing to less consumption from downstream industries. In the meantime, the upstream crude oil prices decreased, lowering the cost pressure on the Propylene market. Moreover, imports from the Asian market turned cheaper as prices decreased in their respective market. Therefore, the price of Propylene reached USD 790/MT FD South Hampton on March 31.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Overall, the Propylene market in the North American region has remained stagnant on a downward trajectory. Although, the moving pace slowed considerably, as the resumption of market activities in the European markets has kept the export market active. However, the soaring inflation rate and hiked interest rates levies a substantial impact on the offtakes in the domestic market. In terms of supply, as the quarter moves, firstly, the operating rates at the Naphtha crackers have adjusted to sustain the supply-demand gap and control the spread with upstream and downstream value chains. At the same time, the operations were hindered by the end of the quarter as a blizzard storm in the US impacting with power outages and transport disruptions in the domestic market. As a ripple effect, the DEL US Gulf discussions for Propylene Polymer grade were settled at USD 957 per tonne during the quarter ending December 2022.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the Propylene market in the Asia Pacific region has observed little to no shift in overall dynamics, and bearish sentiments have consistently prevailed across the region. The demand outlook in the regional market has remained subdued amidst the indigent performance of the polymer industry; almost all major economies in the region have surplus availability of Polypropylene as per sources. At the same time, the market players were highly cautious about new developments in the domestic market and adjusting their operations to their full extent to sustain their netbacks, and several PDH plants in China delayed the resumption of market activities in the region. A similar outlook has prominently prevailed in the South Korean market. YNCC has delayed the restart of the 450,000 MT plant till January 2023 while analyzing the current market dynamics. The data released by the Korean authorities have showcased that the domestic export market has weakened steeply in the fourth quarter. As a ripple effect, the FOB Busan discussions for Propylene were assessed at USD 853 per tonne during the quarter ending December 2022.
Europe
The Propylene market in Europe observed a considerable rebound and quoted offers prompted by a substantial recovery in the fourth quarter of 2022. This development has been majorly attributed to the rebound in market practices post the summer holidays, the commercial and industrial activities resumed. Staggering slowly as the market recovers, the presence of the fresh challenges of high inflation and energy cost clouded the region with numerous uncertainties with the ongoing and upcoming prospects. In response, major manufacturers across the European markets have decided to curtail the run rates at their Naphtha crackers to sustain a supply-demand balance. In December, the EU restricted the consumption of Russian supplies, and the G-7 price cap of USD 60 per barrel has enforced strengthened wait-and-see sentiments amongst the Crude Oil players, as the anticipation for retaliatory sanctions has strengthened. In terms of demand outlook, the sufficient inventories of PP have suppressed the inquiries of Propylene polymer grade throughout the quarter, and the FD Genoa (Italy) was assessed at USD 632 per tonne in December 2022.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the third quarter of 2022, the Propylene market in the North American region witnessed mixed sentiments that differentiated based on grades. The Propylene polymer grade witnessed consistent bullish sentiments, whereas the refinery grade fluctuated based on cost support from feedstock and demand outlook from the domestic and overseas markets. Consistent poor inland logistics have primarily plagued the U.S. Propylene market, & with a deficit in the spot offers and insufficient pricing competitiveness on the exported volumes. As a ripple effect, the DEL US Gulf discussions for Propylene grade settled at USD 1120 per tonne during the quarter ending September 2022.
Asia Pacific
Overall the Propylene market in the Asia Pacific region remains subdued, with bearish sentiments throughout the region during the third quarter of 2022. The cost support from the feedstocks has consistently fluctuated, and OPEC+ consistently manipulated the Crude Oil supply by curtailing the output, despite its negligible impact across the value chain. The poor performance of Propylene is primarily attributed to the lackluster demand, as the region witnessed an oversupply of downstream PP. In addition, the operations at the downstream facilities were curtailed in China amidst the extreme heat-led power rationing. Several producers have curtailed Propylene production significantly as a ripple effect. The FOB Qingdao discussions for Propylene were assessed at USD 890 per tonne during September 2022.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2022, the Propylene market in the European region witnessed a steep plunge in the offers quoted in the domestic markets. The commercial and economic activities remained under pressure for the third quarter of 2022 amidst the summer holidays and the growing threat of a European recession. Therefore the inquiries were more concentrated on a long-term contractual basis, and the spot inquiries remained muted during July and August. Although the market reopened in the last month with numerous uncertainties, the negotiation was negligible. Due to the rising inflation, the market participants were keener towards conservative buying or Asia suppliers. As a ripple effect, the FD Hamburg discussions for Propylene were assessed at USD 460 per tonne during the quarter ending September 2022.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
In the US, the prices of Propylene steadily decreased throughout the second quarter of 2022. During May, most market participants took an early off for the long memorial day weekend. The decreasing price trend of Propylene was abetted by the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, inflation, and various Covid-19-related lockdowns in the Chinese market. Polymer Grade propylene was being traded at a discounted price during the second quarter of 2022. The discount widened, and at the end of Q2 2022, the cost of Propylene reduced even further due to the weak market sentiments in the American market. Increased cracker and PDH margins also assisted the decreasing price trend in the US throughout Q2 2022.
APAC
In the Indian market, the prices of Propylene surged during the start of the second quarter of 2022 due to rising upstream Naphtha prices. Tight supply and strong demand from the downstream industries increased the prices. The price trend significantly changed in the following months of 2022, owing to increased cracker spreads across the country. The cheap supply of upstream naphtha and feedstock crude oil abetted the decreasing price trend at the end of Q2 2022. In the Chinese market, the price of Propylene was very volatile because of the sluggish demand caused by the Covid-19-related restrictions and then witnessed a price hike as the regulation eased. At the end of Q2 2022, the price dropped again in China because of a steady supply of feedstock crude oil from Russia.
Europe
In the European market, the Propylene price witnessed a massive spike during the start of the second quarter of 2022 owing to several European countries' ban on Russian crude oil and natural gas imports. The sanctions raised the price of feedstock crude oil due to the tight supply, which drove up the Propylene prices in Europe. In the following two months in Propylene European market, the prices consistently decreased. The demand for fuel in Europe forced increased run rates in refineries, which produced upstream Naphtha as a by-product. This sudden rise in the supply of upstream Naphtha contributed to the decreasing price trend of Propylene during the last two months of Q2 2022 in Europe.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In North America, the price of Propylene was observed to be increasing in the USA in the first quarter, with prices hovering around USD 510/ton-546/ton for Propylene Refinery Grade Del US Gulf, and a sudden spike of 14.4% in March. There was an overall decrease of 5.7% in Q1 compared to the previous quarter. The USA, which contributes 10% of the world's total Propylene exports, majorly to Colombia, saw an increase in freight charges due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Also, the operational cost for Fluid Catalytic Crackers increased due to record-high energy costs over the last four weeks. With all propane dehydrogenation units operating at a healthy rate and few supply bottlenecks, polymer-grade Propylene's price-maintained stability in the first quarter.
Asia Pacific
During Q1, the prices of Propylene surged for March on the back of Crude oil prices heading for historical highs due to the prevalent turbulence in Europe and a ban on Russian Oil and Gas imports by nations, with prices hovering around USD 1027/ton-USD 1073/ton FOB Busan in March in South Korea. Persistent supply tightness in feedstock crude oil and natural gas and higher downstream demand from construction, polymers, and fuel additives led to an increase in the prices of Propylene. China, a significant importer of around 34.4% of Propylene from South Korea, saw an escalation in shipment and freight charges.
Europe
Europe saw an increase in the price of Propylene in the first quarter with a sudden increase of 7.8% in March and prices hovering around USD 1370/ton-USD 1422/ton FOB South Hampton in Germany with its contribution of 3.99% of total world exports majorly to France. Surging upstream petroleum oils prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has put pressure on the merits of Propylene. Higher demand from downstream propylene glycol and tighter margins prompted refineries to pass on higher costs in the production rates. Therefore, higher-cost support from the upstream propane strengthened the propylene glycol producers regarding the increment in the offered quotations.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
The North American propylene market witnessed an unprecedented consistency in trend throughout Q4 of FY21. While the refinery grade propylene remained largely inelastic to the downstream market trends, polymer grade propylene market prices fluctuated in sync with the downstream polypropylene prices. After a supply starved third quarter where refinery production had been hit and supply chains disrupted along the gulf coast during the hurricane season, the first part of Q4 continued to be a seller’s market. The trend however reversed during the second half of Q4 as prices of feedstock naphtha and LPG started to fall since the first week of November and continued their downtrend to the end of December. The average prices of refinery and polymer grades of propylene were assessed at 520 USD/MT FAS Houston and 1640 USD/ MT FOB Houston (which is a 5% decrease from the Q3 average) respectively. The outlook for Q1 of FY22 looks uncertain on the back of a new wave of pandemic causing lockdowns and disruption of supply chains across North America. A more positive market could be expected from the second half of Q1 as demand could recover from the temporary slump.
Asia
The North-East Asian region saw a gradual shift in cracking capacity with Naphtha outperforming Propane as the preferred feedstock due to increasingly lower arbitrage margins from US LPG imports. Although propane dehydrogenation capacity in China had been increasing over the years, there had been a reversal in trend for the last three to four quarters as China is becoming more and more import dominant for LPG and as a result losing out in the arbitrage market as imports from US and the Middle East are becoming insufficient for domestic consumption. A slightly higher import price range was observed for propylene with average CFR prices assessed at 1020 USD/Mt compared to 1010 USD/Mt in Q3. While the FOB prices for South Korea had been assessed at 1010 USD/Mt for Q4 which is a 25 USD/Mt higher than the Q3 average.
India however witnessed a buyer’s market largely because the fourth quarter (of the calendar year) is characterized by a long festive season when demand for chemicals typically falls. The prices fell from an annual high of 1190 USD/Mt in the month of July to 930 USD/Mt in the month of December.
Europe
European markets had seen a gradual shift in imports from the regional markets to Asian propylene owing to higher arbitrage margins during the fourth quarter of FY21. While the average price of propylene sourced from domestic trade were assessed at 1245 USD/Mt on an FD Hamburg basis, the import prices from North-East Asia had been assessed at 1135 USD/Mt on a CIF Hamburg basis during Q4 of FY21. Thus, propylene from Asia was cheaper by at least 50 to 60 USD/Mt throughout Q4 as per the assessment of ChemAnalyst’s market Intelligence unit. The outlook for Q1 of FY22 looks positive amidst the new wave of pandemic as strict quarantine measures in the North-East Asian region means that logistical bottlenecks could persist through out Q1 of FY22. This could result in domestic manufacturers and traders quoting higher prices as imports from Asia could be harder to come by.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The overall market outlook of Propylene strengthened in North America during the third quarter of 2021. In the 2nd week of September, leading companies like ExxonMobil and Dow Chemicals at Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and Taft, Louisiana, respectively restarted the production of Propylene after some plant shutdowns due to the hurricane Ida. Propylene crackers of NOVA and Enterprise were reported offline in Q3 2021. Suppliers focussed on building inventories as the demand from the downstream sectors remained strong during the quarter as polypropylene trended upwards due to the significant demand pull. According to the market experts, the supply for Propylene dropped by 5-8% due to the occurrence of hurricane Ida. DEL US Gulf Price of Propylene was last assessed at USD 1850 per MT in September.
Asia Pacific
Propylene prices in the Asia Pacific region remained range bound as inquiries for the downstream Polypropylene improved but supply stayed ample during the third quarter. The supply of Propylene increased across the region with the commencement of GS Caltex's new steam cracker plant on July 5th at Yeosu. Another steam cracker plant with a capacity of around 410 KTPA extended the ease to the supply fundamentals. However, the prices of Propylene in the domestic market continued to dwindle followed by the weaker demand in several parts of Asia due to new delta variant cases. In China, discussions for downstream Polypropylene remained thin due to the decline in the market activities amid Covid infections. In India too, sufficient availability amidst the firm demand pushed down the prices of Propylene from USD 1175/MT to USD 1158/MT per MT within the quarter.
Europe
The supply of Propylene in Europe region escalated in the third quarter of 2021 backed by the recovery of PDH units, crackers, and refineries. The demand grew effectively throughout the quarter from the downstream sectors. In Germany, the prices of Propylene traced upwards trajectory and settled at USD 1305/MT FD Hamburg in Q3 2021 followed by the significant rise in the prices of its upstream.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
Almost all Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) units in the US gulf coast region recovered from the devastating impact of the winter storm Uri, and improved operating rates supported the supplies of Propylene throughout the region. Market sentiments showed gradual improvement over the previous quarter and stabilized by the April end. Demand in the North American region was buoyed by growing enquiries from the domestic as well as overseas market. Offtakes from the regional plastic market have been up as economies are rebounding after the COVID impact. Prices in the US remained on a downtrend during the H1 of Q2 and then stabilized in the second half with FOB Texas discussions at USD 710-745 per tonne in June.
Asia Pacific
Propylene supplies in China were tight in the second quarter of 2021, as several refineries and PDH units in China were on a turnaround in the first half of the quarter, supported by the tight market outlook from the key exporter South Korea. Start-up of LyondellBasell’s 400 KTPA downstream Polypropylene plant in Ulsan, South Korea in June further bolstered the demand outlook. Amidst rising inflation rate in China, the prices of raw material continued to remain firm till May ending and started to stabilize since early June as a repercussion of strong wait and see attitude from the spot buyers. High-cost raw material curtailed the production margins for several downstream manufacturing units. FOB Qingdao (China) Propylene pricing discussion settled at USD 1281 per tonne in June.
Europe
Propylene supplies in the European region showed mixed sentiments as several PDH units, crackers and refineries were under maintenance during the first half of the second quarter. However, imports from Asia increased after the domestic demand turned high than supplies. Key Asian exporters included Malaysia, South Korea and China. Demand remained strong as the enquiries piled up from the downstream PP producers. Due to better demand and restricted supplies, Propylene prices continued to maintain firmness in Q2 with CIF NWE offers settling at USD 1400-1420 per tonne, to its several years high in early June.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
During the Q1 of 2021, the supplies of propylene were tight in the region, it bounds the margins for the downstream derivatives market resulted in increment in demand, as the several petrochemicals production unit shutdowns emerge on the US gulf region amid deep freeze weather. Major plants such as LyondellBasell and INEOS olefins declared shutdown in mid-February amid the extreme weather conditions resulted in multi-fold surge in the prices of Propylene in US. Domestic Propylene (PGP) prices surged to USD 1950 per MT, to an all-time high in mid-February.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
The supply of Propylene remained balanced in the Asian region during the first quarter, owing to the addition of new facilities in China, followed by the resumption of major facilities in the South Korea including the LG Chem. Yeochun NCC (YNCC) resumed its production during the second half of Q1 2021, after a turnaround and announced expansion of its Ethylene and Propylene unit. However, Asian suppliers diverted their stocks to cater to the western demand for better revenue, as the arbitrage with European and North American region opened. The demand in Asia surged, due to the better offtakes from the downstream sector throughout the quarter. The prices of Propylene CFR China crossed the USD 1000/MT in mid-February.
Europe
The supply of Propylene in the European region remained tight throughout Q1, as a repercussion of reduced production from the refineries amid the ongoing pandemic and lockdown restrictions. The situation got aggravated, as the key Propylene supplier declared planned turnaround in early February. However, the demand persisted a healthy trend throughout the quarter. The exports trend shifted from the US to Asian suppliers, due to the extreme weather conditions in the US declined the transport of cargoes. In terms of prices, Europe remained to be the most feasible region.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
North America
Regional Propylene supply was affected by the prolonged shutdown of BASF Total’s Port Arthur cracker in Texas cracker. Hit by the pandemic-induced slowdown, the America’s combined refinery run rate was maintained around 75-80 pc due to depressed gasoline demand, further limiting the Propylene production. Series of force majeures declared due to hurricane Laura led to temporary disruption in the regional supply. US Gulf Propylene prices showed an uptick amid production issues and prospects turning positive as manufacturing activity gradually picked up during the quarter. The US DEL (delivered) Polymer-Grade Propylene (PGP) contract prices were settled at one-year high to around USD 715 per tonne and Chemical-Grade Propylene (CGP) was assessed at USD 683 per tonne in July.
Asia
Propylene supply across Asia was observed getting tighter by the end of the Q3 with price discussions gradually picking up particularly in northeast Asia. Various planned and unplanned outages affected the functioning of fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) and steam cracking Naphtha units in Japan. Strong domestic demand in South Korea restricted the cargo availability for exports. Demand in China was more or less stable with buyers indicating the commissioning of two Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) units in July possessing a total nameplate capacity of 1050 KTPA. Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) announced maintenance shutdown of its No. 3 cracker located in Taiwan on August 11 for nearly 1.5 months. The cracker has Propylene production capacity of 600 KTPA. In addition, Yeochun NCC (YNCC) and SK Global Chemical were heard starting turnarounds for their crackers from August to October. With producers highlighting tight regional supply, CFR China Propylene prices were assessed at the USD 900 per tonne levels in mid-September. Demand for Propylene Derivatives was seen gaining strength by the end of into Q3.
Europe
The third quarter Propylene prices were settled at a narrow range with the demand outlook largely mixed-to-low owing to fragile economic conditions. Prompt availability of the product was affected largely by unexpected cracker turnarounds in early-August which were resolved by the first half of September. The ongoing outage at Borealis’ Stenungsund, Sweden cracker further exacerbated the shortness in product availability. The pricing graph last showed an upward trajectory in July when it was assessed around USD 780 per tonne FD NWE and then gradually tapered off by the end of the quarter. While refineries continued to run at reduced rates, primary driver Naphtha was on a slightly lower edge in August compared to July. Some players reported lackluster demand for Propylene derivatives while others surging Polypropylene consumption as the sweet spot.
